Who Would Win- Obama Versus Trump?
What if the election were today and it was President Barack Obama versus Republican Donald Trump?
According to a recent Zogby Analytics poll, it would be close but President Obama would beat the real estate mogul. The poll was conducted following the President's speech on Sunday night and Trump's comments on banning Muslims from entering the country and it shows the President winning the hypothetical election 41% to 38%. 18% of the more than 800 likely voters said they would vote for someone else and 3% were undecided.
"This is a close race revealing just how split the nation finds itself with a year to go before the 2016 general election. The President is clearly under-performing and should be scoring more than 41% against any potential challenger, let alone one as controversial as Mr. Trump. Clearly the President - as a Democrat - is not where he would need to be among younger voters, non-whites, and Catholics. Actually losing support among Investors, Wal-Mart Shoppers and NASCAR Fans is an ominous sign for any Democrat who carries the party's banner next year," John Zogby wrote in a recent press release.
Here's the demographic breakdown of the Zogby Analytics poll:
The two "candidates" are tied among men (42% Obama, 43% Trump), while women prefer the President 39% to 34%. Younger voters offer Mr. Obama an edge - 47% to 29% among 18-29 year olds, 42% to 34% with 30-49 year olds - however older voters favor Mr. Trump (43%-39%). Democrats back their President 75% to 12%, Republicans support Mr. Trump 71% to 10%), but independents stand by the mogul 36% to 29%. While liberals back Mr. Obama (74%-12%), fewer conservatives (67%-12%) prefer Mr. Trump. Moderates tilt toward Mr. Obama 43% to 31%.
White voters give Mr. Trump a 15 point edge (46%-31%), while both Hispanics and African Americans stick with the President - 60% to 22% among Hispanics, 81% to 10% among African Americans.
Catholics are actually tied - 42% Trump, 41% Obama, but Born Again/evangelicals prefer Mr. Trump 50% to 26%. The self-described Investor Class back the "dealmaker" 45%-42%, while union voters support the Democrat (44%-37%). The Creative Class strongly supports the President 51% to 36%). But two mainstay groups for the President over the years go the other way now - Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers give Mr. Trump an 8 point edge (45% to 37%) and NASCAR Fans offer a 16 point margin (49% to 33%). Mr. Obama holds a 40 point margin among LGBT voters (59% to 19%).
John Zogby is a national pollster, author and Forbes Magazine columnist from Utica, NY who appears regularly on First News with Keeler in the Morning on WIBX.
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