Heavy Lake Effect Snow In Central New York This Thanksgiving

If you’ve lived in Central New York long enough, you know lake effect snow has a mind of its own, and this weekend, it’s ready to make an entrance.

The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Madison, Northern and Southern Oneida, and Onondaga counties, and it runs straight through 7AM on Saturday. In other words, the snow party isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

So what can we expect? In short: a lot. Forecasters are calling for an additional 6 to 15 inches of snow, with storm totals landing somewhere between 7 and 16 inches. But if you live in northern Onondaga County, don’t be surprised if you see closer to 20 inches thanks to those stationary snow bands. Speaking of bands, snowfall rates could get as intense as 2.5 inches per hour this afternoon (Friday) and evening.

The wind will add a little extra drama too, with gusts reaching 35 miles per hour. That means white-knuckle travel, blowing snow, and visibility that can go from “fine” to “absolutely not” in a matter of seconds.

If you do have to drive, the usual advice applies: keep a flashlight, snacks, and water in the car just in case things get dicey. And remember, lake effect snow is sneaky. One moment you’re cruising through clear skies, and a mile later it looks like someone shook a snow globe over your windshield.

Once this warning finally expires early Saturday, the weather isn’t exactly settling down. Saturday itself brings a chance of leftover snow showers with highs near 35. Saturday night looks cloudier with more snow returning after 1 AM. By Sunday, things get messy, snow in the morning, a rain/snow mix midday, then rain showers through the afternoon. Another round of snow is possible Sunday night as temperatures drop again.

And if you’re wondering why it suddenly feels like we’ve been dumped into a walk-in freezer, meteorologists say a weakened Polar Vortex may be to blame. NOAA explains that warm air pushing into the Arctic can split the vortex and shove colder air south—right over us. That could mean December temperatures running about 10 degrees below average, with highs in the 20s and low 30s and some nights dipping into the teens or even single digits in the North Country.