
Major Weather Pattern Change Coming to Central New York in February
If you thought January was an a strange month for winter weather, wait until you hear what February may have in store for us.
The start of a new month typically ushers in a change in the weather, and a different kind of pattern is taking shape.
January brought us nonstop cold and bone chilling temperatures. So, what will February bring?
Read More: Great News about Lake Effect Snow in Central New York
Ray Stagich of The Weather Channel gave WIBX a preview of what's to come.
"There's definitely a pattern change," he said and teased "milder weather" is beginning to develop.
Stagich explained the cold air coming from Canada and the Arctic will take a backseat for this new pattern, where milder weather will flow in from the West to the East.
"These systems swing through pretty quickly with mild air first, then dry colder air back behind," he explained.
Central New York will experience the first such wave starting this weekend.
[These systems] bring a little bit more mild air with them, so with the next system coming in for the weekend, it looks like there'll be some snow, especially in the North Country, but areas in and around [south of] the Thruway may actually get rain from that system and some snow showers behind it.
He anticipates CNY will see "maybe a few inches" of snow over the weekend, which is "typical" for these systems.
He said the Utica area may see between 1 to 3 inches of snowfall while North Country will likely see more; especially near Tug Hill and the Adirondacks.
Additionally, Stagich said any rain will likely not lead to ice covered roads or snowmobile trails - but he did mention they could be "messy" because of slush.
"I think there will be some ice and slick spots in terms of refreeze, but [it won't be] from any freezing rain or sleet coming from the sky," Stagich said.
While there may be less snow, Stagich warned, "Most car accidents in winter weather occur when there's less than two inches of snow [on the ground.]"
What Other Weather Changes Will February Bring to CNY?
Stagich said the days of lake effect snow are beginning to wind down due to the colder weather.
"Lake Erie is basically cut off," he said in terms of it producing any more snow. "It's a little bit more shallow than Ontario, so any lake effect coming off of Lake Erie around Buffalo, and Rochester is just about done now."
Meanwhile, Lake Ontario is still "ice free" for the most part, he said. "We still got a chance to see more lake effect here if we get the right trajectory and enough cold air coming over the warmer Lakes."
However, he says Central New York will see "less lake effect snow as we get into February and, especially, March."
He said in its place will be periods of "synoptic snow."
Meaning there's actually an air of low pressure associated with it.
Synoptic snow is also considered a larger event than lake effect snow, because low-pressure systems allow for more widespread snow while lake effect snow is delivered through narrower bands.
Stagich said synoptic snow is more common with East Coast Storm systems, like nor'easters and blizzards.
"Don't see any of that over the next 6 to 10 days, and possibly even longer," Stagich said.
Will CNY See Any Nor'easters and Blizzards This Winter?
Stagich said predicting weather that far out is difficult, if not impossible, because long-range weather models are more likely to change than those that predict weather two to three days ahead.
"I can't imagine we don't get zero," he said of the number of synoptic snow systems the area could see.
The question is, if we get one or two in February, one or two in March, the real question is going to be how much cold air will be around.
If these low pressure systems interact with enough cold air, then snow will fall, he said. But, if the weather is warmer, Stagich said CNY might "get rain."
Stagich added he believes February will "probably not be as cold as we were in January," which is welcome news to those who are tired of the nonstop snow.
What This New Weather Means for Snowmobiles
Stagich, who is an avid snowmobiler, said 2025 is one of the best years for hitting the trails.
"It looks like some of the best conditions I'm hearing, from the chatter, in multiple years," Stagich said, noting Tug Hill into Old Forge and Boonville are among the better spots to go riding.
So for those who have been thinking about maybe hopping on a snowmobile and giving it a go, this is their year to give it a try, absolutely.
Stagich also urged all riders to "obey the speed limits" and take extra care navigating curves because they could be icy.
New York is home to over 10,500 miles of snowmobile trails and, according to Visit CNY, our neck of the woods has some of the finest trails.
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