Here’s What We Know about Potential Thanksgiving Week Nor’Easter

Nasty weather is expected over the holiday weekend.

Last week, weather watchers warned of a possible Thanksgiving Nor'easter.

Initial forecasts called for the possibility of heavy snow, howling winds, and challenging travel conditions.

Now that the holidays are days away, forecasts are getting ready to make their final predictions.

David J. Nicosia, Meteorologist-In-Charge of NOAA-National Weather Service Binghamton, offered the latest data about the possibility of severe weather.

Some of our models have snow for the Utica area Thursday with lake effect snow Friday. Some have the storm staying south on Thanksgiving with lake effect snow on Friday.

Nicosia added, "The chance for snow on Thanksgiving is the most uncertain, but cold air coming into our area and lake effect snow is more likely to occur on Friday into the weekend."

This echoes what the National Weather Service called for on Monday morning.

While it is tracking "unsettled wintry weather," there remains some uncertainty "in the forecast track and intensity of this system."

Contributing to the uncertainty is an unpredictable jet stream, which is able to alter the course of the impending storm.

Because of this, several weather models are falling out of alignment when it comes to the storm's path and timing.

Right now it is trending south, meaning the Nor'easter is more likely to hit our area and New England.

Max Velocity, who runs the Severe Weather Center, noted that predicting the storm has become "complicated."

The European model currently shows the area being hit by a system Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but Velocity says the map indicates it'll "probably be a quick moving storm."

While he doesn't anticipate significant snowfall, perhaps 2 to 4 inches on Thanksgiving, he says Central New York isn't off the hook.

I do expect a potential for significant lake effect snow event as we go into the weekend and eventually into the following weekend. [...] Could see significant lake effect snow that lasts several days. This could last four to five days.

The European model suggests we could see over a foot of snow, with the Syracuse area possibly getting almost 2 feet.

Velocity emphasized "this is a very early estimate" and that the forecast has plenty of time to change.

He explained, "Lake effect snow is difficult to predict" because "even the smallest change in wind direction" can completely change "the entire forecast."

Velocity is leaning toward the the Global Forecasting System, or the GFS model, which he says has been the more accurate between the two.

That model doesn't reflect severe weather threat on Thanksgiving. However, he said, "It does still show the potential for a multi-day lake effect snow event."

While he says the model shows the lake effect snow won't be as intense, he says, "This goes from Thursday all the way through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week."

The GFS model shows Central New York recieving up to 10 inches of snow.

Like the National Weather Service, the Severe Weather Center is also taking a "wait and see" approach as the forecast still has plenty of time to evolve.

At the moment, the NWS' climate prediction center still has Central New York under a "slight" risk for heavy snow and heavy winds between November 30 and December 6.

More will be known about this potential, multi-day snowmaking event in the coming days.

Nicosia told WIBX that the NWS "will know more Tuesday" and will provide an updated forecast.

The Current Forecast

The Weather Channel's 10-day forecast for the Utica is still calling for wintry precipitation around Thanksgiving.

Wednesday, Nov 27: Partly cloudy skies with a high around 37. Rain developing overnight.
Thursday, Nov 28: Overcast with scattered rain and snow showers with a high around 40.
Thursday Night: Rain and snow showers mixing, with an overnight low around 29.
Friday, Nov 29: Variable snow showers with highs around 37. Current models call for a 40% of snow.
Friday Night: Snow showers, up to an inch possible, with lows around 24.
Saturday, Nov 30: Snow showers in the morning, high 32.
Saturday Night: A few clouds with a low of 19.
Sunday, Dec 1: Becoming gradually more cloudy throughout the day, with a high around 32.
Sunday Night: Snow showers with about an inch expected to fall, low 22.

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