Stefanik Nomination Creating Shakeup in NY-21: Who’s Running?

President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the United Nations has potential candidates jockeying for position in anticipation of a special election coming in early 2025.

It's unknown when Stefanik will step down, but she has accepted Trump's offer for the position, so political insiders believe her resignation will come just before Congressional certification on January 6, 2025. If these predictions hold true, the special election could be held March 18, March 25, or April 1.

Here are the procedures that need to be followed by New York Governor Kathy Hochul in order to fill the seat, after Stefanik resigns from Congress:

Governor Hochul will be required to call a special election within ten days of the vacancy, with the election held within 70 to 80 days of the announcement. Candidates from both parties would then be nominated by local committees instead of a primary election. Additionally, New York's expanded vote-by-mail and early voting rules will apply, likely boosting accessibility in this special election.

Republicans and Democrats will select their candidates using each of the 13 county chairs throughout the district, using a weighted voting system. These weights depend on the population and registered voter count in each county, with larger or more populous counties holding more influence.

For the Republican Party, the weighted voting process gives priority to counties like Saratoga, which has a significant population base in NY-21, followed by other populous counties such as Oneida, Herkimer Jefferson and St. Lawrence. Smaller counties like Hamilton and Essex, which have fewer voters, contribute less to the overall weighted vote but still play a role.

For the Democratic Party, the counties also contribute weighted votes, though the weighting differs slightly based on Democratic registration numbers and past voting trends. Counties such as Oneida, Warren, Clinton, and Essex are significant for Democratic influence in the district, whereas smaller counties with fewer registered Democrats have a smaller impact.

Both parties’ county committees use this weighted voting structure in a process facilitated by the New York State Board of Elections, with each county’s influence proportionate to their voter registration or recent election results. Conservative and Working Families will select their candidate based on party rules.

Who is Interested?

If Elise Stefanik steps down, a mix of Republicans and Democrats are being mentioned as potential candidates for New York’s 21st Congressional District. On the Republican side, names such as state Assemblyman Robert Smullen, Assemblyman Matt Simpson, and Warrensburg Supervisor Kevin Geraghty are being considered. Jill Lochner, a local leader, has also shown interest, as has Utica-area businessman Joe Rutkowski of Rome, who along with his wife operate Mohawk Valley Materials in Rome.

For Democrats, Matt Castelli, who ran against Stefanik in 2022, is a prominent potential candidate, along with attorney Craig Greenberg and previous challenger Paula Collins. Local officials and active community leaders are also speculated to step forward.

Joe Rutkowksi

Joe Rutkowski of Mohawk Valley Materials, a construction and material supply company based in upstate New York. The company, certified as a Woman-Owned Small Business, specializes in a variety of services, including land clearing, site development, erosion control, and military mission support. Mohawk Valley Materials provides services to both government and commercial clients, including heavy civil engineering and environmental recovery projects. It has also engaged in substantial disaster recovery work, like flood risk prevention and cleanup following major storms. Additionally, the company plays a role in supporting military installations by providing site preparation, road construction, and vegetation management services.

Rutkowski and his team at Mohawk Valley Materials have earned positive reviews for their work on federal projects, particularly from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and military bases, where they are noted for their efficiency and adherence to safety standards. Their projects include infrastructure maintenance and emergency response at sites like Fort Dix and West Point.

Rutkowski is known in the Mohawk Valley as a local business person active in the Republican Party, welcoming top GOP national figures like former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and Speaker Mike Johnson to the area for high-end fund-raisers benefiting local Republican candidates.

Assemblyman Robert Smullen

Smullen already represents a good part of Stefanik's district in the Assembly, including all of Herkimer County.

New York Assemblyman Robert Smullen represents the 118th District, which covers a large portion of the Adirondacks and parts of the Mohawk Valley. A Republican, Smullen has a background in both public service and the military. Before joining the Assembly, he served as a U.S. Marine Corps colonel, retiring after over 24 years, including deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Since taking office, Smullen has focused on issues such as veteran support, rural development, and conservation, in line with the interests of his largely rural district. He has been an advocate for policies aimed at boosting the regional economy, especially for small businesses, and preserving New York’s natural resources. His legislative approach emphasizes fiscal conservatism, limited government, and local control over state-mandated policies.