Stefanik and NY-21 Special Election Should Move Forward Soon

The NY-21 congressional seat that was expected to be vacant back in early January is about to open up, triggering a special election to be scheduled soon. President Trump and House Republicans have delayed Stefanik's confirmation as Ambassador to the United Nations, and this her resignation as Congresswoman NY-21 to make sure there are enough GOP members to pass the upcoming budget vote.

“If we get the budget resolution passed this week, which is the plan, then it’s possible that Elise Stefanik would go ahead and move on to her assignment at the U.N. as the ambassador there,” Speaker Mike Johnson said on Monday during a talk at the America First Policy Institute. Stefanik's confirmation and then resignation will mark the start of New York Governor Kathy Hochul's obligation to set the special election date, and it will allow Republican committees in the 21st congressional district to elect their candidate to run for the seat. The Democrats have already chosen their candidate, Blake Gendebien, who owns and operates a large farm with his wife and family in St. Lawrence County. The Conservative and Working Families will also have the opportunity to name a candidate.

Here's how the process is required to work for Republicans after Stefanik resigns from Congress:

Governor Hochul will be required to call a special election within ten days of the vacancy, with the election held within 70 to 80 days of the announcement. A GOP candidate would then be nominated by their 13 county chairs in a weighted vote instead of a primary election. These weights depend on the population and registered voter count in each county, with larger or more populous counties holding more influence. Additionally, New York's expanded vote-by-mail and early voting rules will apply, likely boosting accessibility in this special election.

Edited 2/26/25: For the Republican Party, the election of a candidate will come after Stefanik vacates her seat, and will be determined by a weighted voted of each county chairman in the district, based upon the number of votes Stefanik received in each county on the Republican line in the last election. In all, there are more than 20 Republicans who have expressed an interest in running, including local Assemblyman Robert Smullen, and Rome businessman Joe Rutkowski. Conservative and Working Families parties will select their candidate based on party rules. Additionally, New York's expanded vote-by-mail and early voting rules will apply, likely boosting accessibility in this special election.

The slim majority lead for Republicans in the House of Representatives has placed Speaker Johnson in a peculiar position as he tries to move President Trump's agenda forward. “I had 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, and then President Trump began to cull the herd,” Johnson said. “We have a one-vote margin now—smallest in history, right? So for a big chunk of the first 100 days of the Congress, and perhaps beyond, this is not an easy task, but we’re going to get it done.” 

Johnson, who can't afford to lose any Republicans in the upcoming vote, has moved his Trump endorsed budget forward and he's asked the President to wrangle in those GOP members who are on the fence or possible "no" votes. A dragged out budget process is the only thing at this point that could delay Stefanik's confirmation. Stay tuned.