Rapid Warmup, Rain Could Bring Flood Risk to Utica, Mohawk Valley

Meteorologist Ray Stagich from The Weather Channel often says he’s not comfortable looking too far out when forecasting — especially in Upstate New York. Keep that in mind as you read this.

If the forecast holds over the next 10 days, Greater Utica and the Mohawk Valley could be looking at flash flooding by the end of next week.

We’ll see colder temperatures and snow showers Thursday, followed by a brief warmup Friday and Saturday with dry conditions. Highs should reach the low to mid-40s Saturday.

Then it turns cold again Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid to upper 20s. By midweek, temperatures climb back into the 30s Tuesday, 40s Wednesday and Thursday, and possibly the 50s next weekend. Some models even push us near 60 by Monday and Tuesday, March 9 and 10.

The concern: this warmup may come with rain — possibly several days of it.

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There’s still plenty of snow on the ground, and several feet remain in higher elevations.

We’ve seen this setup before — rapid warming into the 50s, steady rain, snowmelt rushing off the hills into the valley — a combination that has caused severe flooding in the past. If you live in a flood zone, you know how quickly it can happen.

This forecast is still about six days out, and plenty can change. But it’s a good reminder to prepare now.

Is your sump pump working? Tested? Do you have a backup? A water alarm? If your basement takes on water, are valuables off the floor?

After a long winter, 50s — even low 60s — will feel great. Daylight Saving Time also returns March 8. But when the warmup comes fast, it can bring problems.

Forecasters say they’ll know more next week. Either way, being prepared can save stress — and hard-earned money.

Stay tuned.