Zogby: Expect to See Different 2020 Polling Numbers, Says Prez Currently Leads 2 Democratic Frontrunners
All aboard the Trump Train?
Could be an adjustment to the formula.
Pollster John Zogby joined Keeler this week saying his most recent analysis of data has Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, and just one point behind Bernie Sanders in potential 2020 matchups.
What's the difference from numerous polls a month ago, many of which had all three ahead of Trump?
Adjustments to the turnout model, he says. And, Zogby believes many other national polls will reflect much tighter numbers in the coming days and weeks.
''I have felt that other major polls in the country under-represented Republicans, to the tune of six, seven, eight-points. There was a Reuters poll out a couple of weeks ago that had a twelve-point spread between the number of Democrats and the number of Republicans. Our Polling, my son Jonathan and also Zogby Strategies, we have a tighter differential between Democrats and Republicans,'' Zogby said.
Does news this weekend about the elimination of ISIS No.1 Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sway polls Trump's way?
Not neccessarily. There is a middle and the middle does matter, Zogby says, but with so many Americans polarized and dug-in on pro- or anti-Trump stances, the Trump bump is less likely.
''The era of the big bump is over. He'll get some additional points or support but there will still be a substantial number of Americans who hate his guts,'' Zogby said.