If the Presidential election were held today and it was against the two leaders, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, it could very well be a virtual tie.

The latest Zogby Poll has the two party leaders stuck in a mathematical tie at 45% each.

"This headline is actually correct to the tenth of a percent," said John Zogby about the headline reporting on the poll that was conducted January 19th and 20th online.  "The new poll shows a 16 point gender gap with Mr. Trump leading among men 50%-42% and Mrs. Clinton ahead among women 48%-40%." The poll also shows 10% of the voters as undecided. Zogby says there is a margin of sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

The poll numbers show a stark difference between voters depending on their age and gender.  "Mrs. Clinton has wide support among 18-29 year olds (57%-25%) and holds a seven point lead among 30-49 year olds (49%-42%), but Mr. Trump is ahead among 50-64 year olds (50%-44%) and has a two to one edge among voters over 65 (61%-30%).

While Zogby's numbers show the expected results with how well the candidates draw among party lines (Hillary wins Democrats 82%-13%, Trump wins Republicans 81%-8%), there are some surprises in some demographics that Dems normally win.

Mr. Trump is ahead among Catholics - a group that Democrats have won every election since 1992. He also draws an impressive 66% support among evangelicals (to Mrs. Clinton's 25%). He also leads among NASCAR Fans (48%-42%), Investor Class voters (49%-44%), and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (50%-42%) - a group President Obama won twice. He even is drawing 37% of union households (to Mrs. Clinton's 56%).

In matchups against other GOP opponents, Mrs. Clinton leads all the rest: 44%-39% against Jeb Bush; 44%-40% vs, Ben Carson; 45%-37% vs. Carly Fiorina; 45%-39% vs Marco Rubio; 44%-38% vs. John Kasich; and 44%-40% vs. Chris Christie.

Bernie Sanders finds himself in the same situation against Mr. Trump - 45.5% Sanders, 44.5% Trump, with 9% undecided. Mr. Sanders, however, has larger leads than Mrs. Clinton over the other GOP contenders - 10 points (46%-36%) over Mr. Bush; 8 points vs. Dr. Carson (44%-35%); 14 points over Mrs. Fiorina (47%-33%); 7 points over Mr. Rubio (44%-37%); 14 points over Mr. Kasich (46%-32%); and 7 points over Mr. Christie (44%-37%).

Get more poll results here.


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