Frightening Survey Warns New York Heading for a “Population Plunge”
Dreaming of moving out of New York for greener pastures? Looks like you're in the majority.
Turns out the Empire State is flirting with a severe "population plunge."
The high cost of living paired with a waning fertility rate means the state may soon hemorrhage residents.
The data comes from a new study from MadeInThe USASurrogacy.com, which looked into all 50 states to determine which states are losing the most residents.
The survey looked into each state's fertility rate and asked 3,000 childless couples of child-bearing age if they plan on growing their families and how many kids they would like to have in the future.
Unfortunately, most of these couples appeared to say "no thanks" to parenthood.
When it came to New Yorkers, it seems a growing number of couples are happy to remain child-free.
New York's Population Expected to Shrink
The state's fertility rate is expected to drop in the next few years, with a growing number of couples saying they don't want to have babies.
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It found New York couples plan on having 1.7 children in the future, which is a 0.1 less than the current state average.
The study warned, "While this discrepancy might seem minimal, it signifies a considerable decline when scaled to the state population level."
Why Are Economists Concerned?
This is raising alarm bells among economists, who say nothing good can come from a shrinking population.
While a common assumption is that a falling population will be better as it might lead to reduced demand for scarce resources, economists warn that America could face multiple economic challenges if couples here choose to have less children. A falling population results in a smaller labor force, which can stifle economic growth, cause labor shortages, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, and reduce overall consumer demand.
The study also noted that a growing, aging demographic strains public finances by tapping more into healthcare resources and pension costs.
It also contributes to a shrinking tax base, which could influence government operations.
Considering we have several lawmakers criticizing the federal government's spending, the writing is on the wall about what will happen if the size of the aging demographic eclipses those in the workforce.
The study also added, "On the real estate front, decreased demand could lead to falling property values. Education and innovation might suffer due to less demand for educational services."
Added Samantha Giermek from MadeintheUSASurrogacy.com, that economic pressures do appear to be the driving force behind more people refusing to have children.
"It's imperative that policymakers recognize these trends and evaluate their long-term implications," she said, adding that more needs to be done to explore what can be changed in order to promote family growth.
Which States Will Have the Largest Population Plunge?
Based on the survey, the state set to experience the sharpest population plunge is Delaware. Respondents from the state said if they are going to start a family, they on;y want 1 child.
To split hairs, that is statistically 0.9, which is a mighty swing of -1.1 compared to a current state average of 1.96.
Delaware is the 6th least populated state in America, with just over 1 million residents, based on recent Census Data.
Here's the other states set to experience a massive drop in population:
1. Delaware: -1.1
2. Alaska: -1.0
3. Idaho: -0.7
4. Nebraska: -0.6
5. Arizona: -0.5
6. Oregon: -0.5
7. Wyoming: -0.5
8. Connecticut: -0.4
9. Tennessee: -0.4
10. Iowa: -0.4
On the flipside; there are some states who will see some population growth in the upcoming years.
New Hampshire and New Mexico are both anticipating baby booms, with couples from both states expressing they want to have more than 2 children.
Benefits of a Shrinking Population?
While the data suggests nothing but doom and gloom, there are some okayish things that could happen if less people have children.
However, environmental benefits might emerge through reduced strain on resources and lower carbon emissions. Various factors can influence these effects, including immigration policies, the speed of population decrease, government policies, technological advancements, and the state's economic structure.
Check out the interactive map to see the family trends from each state.
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