Upstate NY Summer Forecast Calls for Cooler, Wetter Weather

Be careful what you ask for.

The Mohawk Valley may get a break from the extreme heat this summer, but the long-range forecast from The Weather Channel is also predicting a wetter than normal summer.

A new long range forecast from The Weather Channel suggests much of Upstate New York could see temperatures that run near or even slightly below average from July through September. The outlook also calls for a better chance of above normal rainfall across much of the Northeast.

If that forecast holds true, it would be a different story from the hotter, drier stretches we upstate New Yorkers have experienced during recent summers.

The Weather Channel says weather patterns developing across the Pacific Ocean are expected to influence conditions across the country during the second half of summer. While portions of the western United States could face extended periods of heat, the Northeast appears less likely to see prolonged stretches of extreme temperatures.

That doesn't mean summer is being canceled.

Forecasters stress that seasonal outlooks focus on overall trends, not day to day weather. There will still be hot and humid days, and the occasional heat wave remains possible. The difference is that cooler air masses and more frequent storm systems could help keep temperatures from staying elevated for long periods.

Rainfall is another part of the forecast that stands out.

The latest outlook points toward wetter than average conditions across parts of New York State. That's welcome news for farmers, homeowners and gardeners who rely on regular summer rainfall to keep soil moisture levels up during the growing season.

More rain, however, can bring its own challenges. Increased storm activity can also mean a greater risk of localized flooding, heavy downpours and stronger thunderstorms, especially during the peak of summer.

For now, the early outlook suggests the Mohawk Valley could be headed for a summer that is a little greener and a little less oppressive than some of the recent seasons. Whether that translates into fewer 90 degree days remains to be seen, but weather experts say the odds currently favor a cooler and wetter pattern across much of Upstate New York.

The forecast is based on The Weather Channel's latest outlook for July through September and broader climate guidance used by long range meteorologists across the country.