Slightly Optimistic “White Christmas” Forecast for Central New York

Will we wake up to beautiful, white snow on Christmas Day? The latest weather outlook says it is a possibility.

Dreaming of a White Christmas

"Will we have a White Christmas" tends to be the #1 question on everyone's mind around this time of year and I am definitely among the masses. Going back in my memory archive, I think I've only enjoyed a handful of White Christmases - with them shrinking in frequency as I grew older.

Indeed, enjoying snow on Christmas Day has become somewhat of a rarity in recent years. A White Christmas is officially declared when an area receives at least a half an inch of snow on the holiday - but I think most of us will be happy with a dusting at this point.

National data says the treetops glisten, on average, once every six years. Unfortunately, expectations for a White Christmas this year dimmed in Central New York amid a "Super" El Nino that is forcing warmer air into the region.

On the other hand, the warmer temperatures are preventing the Great Lakes from freezing over, which plays a role in the frequency of lake-effect snow.

Read More: What's the Difference Between Lake-Effect Snow and Blizzards?

Lake-effect snow becomes stronger when the lakes aren't fully frozen. Wen low-pressure systems move across the unfrozen lakes, they suck up moisture from the water and will then dump it out over the land when it moves inland.

That said, Upstate New York has a pretty decent chance at a White Christmas this year - as they do every year. The current prediction says they have roughly a 1 in 2 chance of it happening, which are pretty decent odds.

But what about Central New York? Will we be opening our Christmas gifts with snow on the ground?

The Current Outlook

According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, temperatures will be slightly above normal according to their 8-14 day precipitation outlook. It also predicts a below-average amount of precipitation in that same window of time between December 20 and December 26.

While this might make you say, "Aw, shucks," there is another forecast that seems promising for us Central New Yorkers.

According to Accuweather, which bills itself as "the world's most sophisticated weather intelligence," we will see wet weather on Christmas Day.

Peeking at its monthly forecast for Utica, it has a rain and snow symbol in the mix on December 25th. The forecast is calling for an overnight low of 28 and rainy conditions moving in. The temperatures are slated to approach a high near 42 before falling back to near-freezing Christmas Night.

Read More: New York to See Less Snow Because of Super Rare Weather Pattern

The Weather Channel slightly differs from Accuweather's prediction, saying Christmas Day will be partly cloudy with highs near 41 and a 24 percent chance of rain. They also say that wintry mix of rain and snow will actually happen on Tuesday, December 26.

The Weather Channel is also calling for morning snow showers on Wednesday, December 27.

What Does This Mean?

Snow is heading our way sometime Christmas week, but it is still a little too far out to solidly predict what day it will hit us. Snowfall totals are still being narrowed down, so we will have to be patient until next week, when confidence in the Christmas forecast grows.

Hopefully we will wake up to a world that looks a little more magical on Christmas morning.

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